Economic forecasts prove tricky for OECD so why do we believe them?

Opinion by pfisher

According to the OECD, the recovery from the global recession is "likely to arrive earlier than had been expected a few months ago but the...

According to the OECD, the recovery from the global recession is "likely to arrive earlier than had been expected a few months ago but the pace of activity will remain weak well into next year"

It also says that its original forecasts that economic growth across the Group of Seven countries would fall by 4.10 % has been revised up to 3.7% - "a less brutal contraction" it states.

"The latest GDP forecasts for this year provide slightly improved outlooks for Japan and the Euro area, an unchanged overall projection for the US but point to a gloomier situation in the UK." it continues.

That last bit was the sting that much of the UK media and opposition MPs gleefully picked up yesterday, hastily hammering a few more nails into Gordon Brown's coffin. But if the OECD got its predictions wrong earlier in the year, why should we believe its prognosis on the UK now.

This recession has proved beyond doubt that when it comes to predictions, economists are probably the last people we should look to. Especially those from the OECD.
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